Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 99191.069309 104528.557612 109859.945097 115581.287655 121543.669963 127570.475067 134119.213416
2025-08-17 89980.427893 98121.659114 106476.111035 115679.432551 125522.347023 135722.789494 147081.832838
2025-08-24 84269.155236 94407.729986 105034.569995 116981.568052 130015.886032 143782.277279 159398.236753
2025-08-31 78934.301144 90484.136699 102809.193746 116903.792205 132538.213694 149311.331918 168628.307440
2025-09-07 75625.853497 88426.573433 102298.682323 118395.200766 136502.959894 156187.402612 179146.369861
2025-09-14 72534.885885 86351.318115 101534.322543 119384.039369 139717.680135 162082.121358 188460.499644
2025-09-21 69320.778506 83923.984768 100181.363718 119527.315457 141821.717685 166607.257132 196141.216976
2025-09-28 66480.084935 81760.644479 98979.415048 119701.189008 143837.312471 170936.097256 203529.301581
2025-10-05 64903.445079 80967.572155 99268.554308 121516.652549 147679.345823 177312.581156 213250.674321
2025-10-12 63302.451480 80051.904871 99333.498772 122999.473522 151081.475814 183152.193263 222349.279363
2025-10-19 61460.985394 78758.655531 98873.695760 123792.353880 153618.324271 187951.236091 230225.317613
2025-10-26 59419.205537 77136.382038 97943.927446 123953.948322 155349.118920 191765.609301 236926.333392
2025-11-02 57603.398962 75744.178385 97257.886464 124389.812446 157409.669524 195997.068098 244182.903026
2025-11-09 55735.821047 74222.393758 96357.708806 124517.151585 159064.150496 199730.163566 250854.674476
2025-11-16 54621.973711 73594.942443 96514.565088 125905.236909 162228.902495 205270.031167 259712.640686
2025-11-23 52858.142878 72083.952547 95521.714179 125823.872181 163556.813878 208570.413691 265863.376673
2025-11-30 51995.922918 71685.832014 95887.346416 127407.756804 166922.765623 214346.748100 275042.681895
2025-12-07 50936.328602 70993.462207 95848.785981 128457.668454 169610.284383 219293.586500 283228.368529
2025-12-14 49523.645584 69795.965532 95128.188678 128609.791307 171149.525270 222816.047232 289668.529016
2025-12-21 48197.441999 68669.487199 94460.244697 128794.383524 172703.357866 226342.710911 296116.016417
2025-12-28 47701.292489 68619.335062 95161.873340 130721.555254 176459.375032 232616.800549 306003.750118
2026-01-04 47080.357868 68379.046282 95598.521577 132295.383725 179764.655340 238340.552561 315237.278379
2026-01-11 46181.312352 67736.107379 95485.117592 133136.842173 182123.387614 242879.469544 323006.805627